我還以為自己預測 $MMT 500M FDV 已經是挺樂觀了,但看到好像不少人覺得 @buidlpad 打新能賺4-5x。說實話我覺得真的有點難度,我們可以看看其他公鏈龍頭DEX 的FDV/TVL 比例: BSC $CAKE: 0.4 SOL $JUP: 0.7 Linea $REX: 0.25 ETH $UNI: 1.1 Base $AERO: 3 可以看到龍頭DEX 中只有 $UNI 和 $AERO 的FDV/TVL 是大於1的,但前者是全crypto最大的DEX,後者是有Coinbase 扶持的DEX。 平均數拉出來就剛剛好是1x 左右, 也就是FDV 500M。 如果從交易量角度出發也是差不多的結論: @MMTFinance 的平均每天交易量大概是400M,按照500M FDV 計算,交易量/FDV 比例是0.8,也是其他交易所得平均數左右 (Cake = 2, Uni = 0.8, Aero = 0.6)。 這次打新有2倍我覺得已經很滿意了,想買KYC號的我建議想清楚,扣會成本你不一定能賺啊。
有個預感這次 $MMT 在 @buidlpad 上打新的收益會比預期少,主要是因為參與的人多 + 估值未必有這麼高。這次分析一下如何參與CP 值最好~ 現在 @MMTFinance 的 TVL 是500M,先假設 FDV / TVL 比例 是1x, 那 FDV 就是500M。 1⃣假設你什麼都不做,就單純在公售時候參與,你最多能用350M FDV 買2000u。如果10倍超購,最終獲分配的就是200u。 Profit = 200 * (0.5/0.35) - 200 = 85u ROI = 85 / 2000 = 4.25% 2⃣假設我們質押3000u,能用250M FDV 買3000u, 最終獲分配的就是300u。 Profit = 300 * (0.5/0.25) -300 = 300u ROI = 300 / (3000+3000) = 5% 3⃣如果我們再往上升一級質押50,000u, 能用250M FDV 買4000u, 最終獲分配的就是400u。 Profit = 400 * (0.5/0.25) -300 = 400u ROI = 400 / (50000+4000) = 0.74%
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